Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Bear Market Will Last Only 90 Days

A recent analysis by Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, suggests that Bitcoin’s current bear market may be short-lived, lasting approximately 90 days. Thielen anticipates a potential rebound toward $90,000, driven by recent shifts in U.S. economic policy and easing geopolitical tensions.

Key Factors Supporting Bitcoin’s Recovery

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent indication of flexibility regarding reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2.
• The Federal Reserve’s decision to overlook short-term inflationary pressures, signaling potential future easing.
• Technical indicators, including Bitcoin’s 21-day moving average at $85,200, have turned bullish.

Technical Indicators Suggest Bullish Momentum

According to Thielen, Bitcoin’s weekly reversal indicators have returned to levels historically associated with renewed bull markets. Similar conditions previously occurred in September 2023, driven by Bitcoin ETF optimism, and in August 2024, ahead of the U.S. elections.

Thielen stated:

“In short, the technical backdrop has now reset to a point where a renewed uptrend could plausibly unfold.”

Altcoins Showing Positive Signs

Several altcoins have already begun breaking out of their downtrend channels, trading at more attractive levels. Notable weekly gains include:

• Ether (ETH): up 4.3%
• Tron (TRX): up 6.4%
• Avalanche (AVAX): up 8.9%

Current Market Status

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $85,720, marking a 2.1% increase over the past 24 hours. However, Thielen expects significant resistance around the $90,000 level, cautioning that no immediate catalyst exists for a parabolic rally.

Long-Term Holders Provide Stability

Thielen previously noted that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $73,000, as the largest group of Bitcoin holders—wallets containing between 100 and 1,000 BTC—are typically family offices and wealth managers committed to long-term investment strategies.

Additionally, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows last week for the first time since late January, indicating reduced selling pressure from arbitrage-focused investors.

Quick Summary

• Analyst predicts Bitcoin bear market duration of approximately 90 days.
• Potential rebound toward $90,000 supported by easing tariffs and Fed policy.
• Technical indicators and altcoin performance suggest bullish momentum.
• Resistance expected at $90,000; no immediate catalyst for rapid rally.
• Long-term holders and ETF inflows provide market stability.