Bitcoin and Ethereum Set to Close Q1 in Negative Territory, Sharp Upward Move Unlikely
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are on track to record their worst first-quarter performances in years, with analysts suggesting a significant rally before the quarter ends is unlikely.
Q1 Performance: Bitcoin and Ethereum Struggle
According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum has dropped 37.98% in Q1 2025, marking its worst first-quarter decline since 2018, when it fell 46.61%. Bitcoin has also struggled, declining 6.49% this quarter, its weakest Q1 performance since 2020.
Market Analysts Predict Limited Upside
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal stated that a “vertical swing up into the end of the quarter looks unlikely,” citing uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans as a key factor. Hundal expects clearer market direction by mid-April.
Historical Trends and Future Outlook
Historically, Q1 has been Ethereum’s strongest quarter, averaging a 78.23% gain since 2017, while Bitcoin has averaged a 51.62% return since 2013. Despite the current downturn, some analysts remain optimistic about a potential rally in the coming months:
- Crypto commentator Colin Talks Crypto predicts Bitcoin’s next significant rally could begin around April 30.
- Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten believes there’s over a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by June 2025.
Current Market Conditions
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $87,558, and Ethereum at $2,059, both showing modest gains over the past 24 hours. However, the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, currently at 0.2348.
The broader crypto market has also declined, with total market capitalization down 11.65% since January 1, currently sitting at $2.88 trillion.
Factors Behind the Market Downturn
Despite optimism at the end of 2024, when Bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000 following Trump’s election victory, unexpected macroeconomic factors, including imposed tariffs and uncertainty around U.S. federal interest rates, have negatively impacted market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at a neutral score of 47.
Quick Summary
- Bitcoin and Ethereum set for worst Q1 performance in years.
- Ethereum down nearly 38%, Bitcoin down over 6% in Q1 2025.
- Analysts see limited potential for significant rally before quarter-end.
- Market awaiting clarity on U.S. economic policies and tariffs.
- Historical data suggests potential for recovery in coming months.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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