Bitcoin and Ethereum Set to Close Q1 in Negative Territory, Sharp Upward Move Unlikely
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are on track to record their worst first-quarter performances in years, with analysts suggesting a significant rally before the quarter ends is unlikely.
Q1 Performance: Bitcoin and Ethereum Struggle
According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum has dropped 37.98% in Q1 2025, marking its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, when it fell 46.61%. Bitcoin has declined 6.49% this quarter, its weakest Q1 since 2020, when it lost 10.83%.
Historically, the first quarter has been strong for both cryptocurrencies. Since 2017, Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% gain in Q1, while Bitcoin has averaged a 51.62% increase since 2013.
Market Analysts Predict Limited Upside
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that a “vertical swing up into the end of the quarter looks unlikely,” citing uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans as a key factor.
Hundal added that the crypto market will remain uncertain until mid-April, when clearer economic signals are expected.
Next Rally Could Be Weeks Away
Despite the current downturn, some analysts remain optimistic about a potential rally in the coming months:
- Crypto commentator Colin Talks Crypto predicts Bitcoin’s next significant rally could begin around April 30.
- Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten believes there’s over a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by the end of June.
ETH/BTC Ratio Hits Multi-Year Low
The ETH/BTC ratio, indicating Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin, has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, currently sitting at 0.2348 according to TradingView data.
Broader Crypto Market Declines
The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by 11.65% since January 1, currently standing at $2.88 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin is trading at $87,558, and Ethereum at $2,059, both showing modest gains of around 5% over the past 24 hours.
Market Sentiment Remains Neutral
After Bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000 following Trump’s election victory in November 2024, macroeconomic uncertainties, including tariffs and interest rate concerns, have dampened market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at a neutral score of 47.
Quick Summary:
- Bitcoin and Ethereum set for worst Q1 performance in years.
- Analysts see limited potential for a sharp upward move before quarter-end.
- Next significant rally expected around late April or early May.
- ETH/BTC ratio at lowest since May 2020.
- Overall crypto market capitalization down nearly 12% since January.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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