Bitcoin Bulls Beware: Retail Investors Already Active via ETFs, Says CryptoQuant
Bitcoin bulls expecting a surge from retail investors might need to reconsider their strategy, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Contrary to popular belief, retail investors have already entered the market, primarily through Bitcoin ETFs rather than direct on-chain transactions.
Retail Investors Already Here, But Hidden
Ki Young Ju highlighted in a recent post that traditional on-chain metrics fail to capture the full extent of retail investor participation. He explained that retail investors are increasingly using Bitcoin ETFs, a “paper Bitcoin” layer, which doesn’t reflect directly in on-chain data.
“Retail is likely entering through ETFs, which doesn’t show up on-chain,” Ju stated, adding that around 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows originate from retail investors.
Significant ETF Inflows Since Launch
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, total inflows have reached approximately $35.88 billion. Analysts previously noted that retail investors prefer ETFs due to enhanced regulatory protections compared to direct crypto holdings.
Bitcoin Bull Cycle Possibly Over
Ju recently sparked debate by suggesting the Bitcoin bull cycle might be over, citing indicators of declining liquidity influenced by macroeconomic factors. He clarified that this doesn’t imply an immediate crash but rather a prolonged period—potentially 6 to 12 months—before Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time high.
Retail Interest Indicators Declining
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads “Fear” at 31, down from a neutral 49.
- Google search trends for “crypto” have dropped nearly 62% since Bitcoin’s January peak.
- Current Google search interest for “crypto” stands at 38, significantly lower than its peak of 100 in January.
Key Takeaways
- Retail investors are already active in Bitcoin markets through ETFs.
- Traditional on-chain metrics may underestimate retail participation.
- Indicators suggest the Bitcoin bull cycle may have peaked, with a prolonged recovery period ahead.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
