Bitcoin Bulls Beware: Retail Investors Already Here, Says CryptoQuant

Quick Summary

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns Bitcoin bulls that retail investors, long awaited as a sign of a market peak, have already entered the market through Bitcoin ETFs. This challenges the traditional view that retail participation is still pending.

Key Points

• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues retail investors are already active via Bitcoin ETFs, not directly visible through on-chain metrics.
• 80% of Bitcoin ETF inflows reportedly come from retail investors.
• Since January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $35.88 billion in inflows.
• Ju recently declared the Bitcoin bull cycle over, suggesting a bear market or prolonged consolidation ahead.
• Google search trends for “crypto” have dropped significantly since Bitcoin’s January peak.

Retail Investors Already Active Through ETFs

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on March 19 that Bitcoin bulls relying on traditional on-chain metrics to gauge retail investor activity might be misled. He explained that retail investors are now primarily entering the market through Bitcoin ETFs, a “paper Bitcoin” layer that doesn’t appear in on-chain data.

Ju highlighted that around 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows originate from retail investors, a trend previously noted by Binance analysts in October 2024. These investors prefer ETFs due to regulatory protections, shifting their holdings away from direct wallet or exchange deposits.

Since January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows totaling around $35.88 billion. Source: Farside

Bitcoin Bull Cycle Over?

Ju recently sparked debate by declaring the Bitcoin bull cycle over on March 17. He clarified that this doesn’t necessarily mean an imminent crash, but rather a prolonged period—possibly 6 to 12 months—before Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time high.

He cited macroeconomic factors and liquidity indicators as reasons for his bearish outlook, suggesting the market may have already peaked.

Declining Retail Interest Indicators

Other indicators also suggest declining retail interest:

• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads “Fear” at 31, down from a neutral 49.
• Google search trends for “crypto” have fallen by nearly 62% since Bitcoin’s January peak at $109,000.

Google searches for “crypto” have declined significantly since January. Source: Google Trends

Conclusion

Bitcoin bulls should reconsider their assumptions about retail investor participation. With retail investors already active through ETFs, traditional on-chain metrics may no longer accurately reflect market sentiment or potential peaks.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.