Why Has Bitcoin’s Price Stalled?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a tight range of $82,400–$85,300 since March 14, with brief breakouts quickly reversing. Several factors are contributing to this stagnant price action, including macroeconomic uncertainty, declining market liquidity, and technical resistance.
Mixed Signals from Economic Policies and News
Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound due to conflicting bullish and bearish headlines:
Bullish Factors:
- The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% and slowed balance sheet runoff, signaling looser monetary policy.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell described tariff-driven inflation as “transitory,” briefly boosting market sentiment.
- President Trump declared the U.S. the “undisputed Bitcoin superpower,” advocating pro-crypto policies and stablecoin legislation.
- MicroStrategy continues institutional Bitcoin accumulation, recently adding 130 BTC, totaling 499,226 BTC.
- Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed selling U.S. gold reserves to acquire 1 million BTC, highlighting shifting attitudes toward Bitcoin.
Bearish Factors:
- The Fed raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 2.8% and cut GDP growth expectations to 1.7%, indicating rising stagflation risks.
- Bitcoin’s recent breakout attempts quickly reversed, showing weak market conviction.
- Ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainties continue to weigh on market sentiment.
- A European Central Bank official warned that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could trigger a global financial crisis.
Liquidity and Speculative Activity Decline
Reduced liquidity and speculative trading activity are further limiting Bitcoin’s price movements:
- Realized Cap growth slowed significantly to +0.67% per month, down from 13.2% in December, indicating weak capital inflows.
- “Hot Supply,” representing short-term trader activity, has dropped by over 50%, signaling reduced speculative interest.
- Daily exchange inflows have fallen by 54%, from 58.6k BTC/day to 26.9k BTC/day, reflecting lower trading volumes.
- These metrics suggest the market is shifting from profit-driven speculation to a neutral equilibrium, limiting volatility.
Technical Patterns Keeping BTC Price in Check
Bitcoin’s price is currently trapped within an ascending triangle pattern, defined by:
- A horizontal resistance level acting as a strong ceiling.
- An ascending trendline providing consistent support.
- Repeated failed breakout attempts above resistance, indicating indecision.
This ascending triangle typically signals a bullish reversal when formed during a downtrend. A decisive breakout above the resistance could propel Bitcoin toward approximately $91,965 in April. Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending support line could trigger a decline toward $77,635.
Summary and Key Points
- Bitcoin remains range-bound due to conflicting macroeconomic signals and declining market liquidity.
- Technical resistance and support levels are creating an ascending triangle pattern, signaling potential for a significant breakout or breakdown.
- Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic developments, liquidity metrics, and technical price levels for clues on Bitcoin’s next major move.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
